Market and Economic Comments


Large Capitalization stocks performed better than their smaller peers for the quarter. Growth stocks were favored over value stocks as well. The best performing Index (among the Russell Indices) was the Russell Top 200® Growth Index which was up 8.4% (in line with the nifty Nasdaq 100 also up 8.2%). The Russell 2000® Value Index brought up the rear with a 3.6% rise. This reverses the trend in the third quarter when the value stock indices out shown their growth stock siblings.

For the Russell 2000 Growth Index the quarter started relatively strong in the first few weeks of October, and then sold off precipitously in the fourth week of October, down over ten percentage points (from a 3% gain in mid month to a 7% loss by the end of October). November saw just over a 3% rise; and the Russell 2000 Growth stocks rose approximately 8.6% in December.

The US economy is growing; the revision for the third quarter GDP growth was annualized 2.2%. While this number is lower than the original estimates, it is important to reiterate that it is much better than the significant declines we saw in GDP during the year ending June 30, 2009. Economists who participate in the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts believe that the economy will grow by approximately 3% for most of 2010 (2.9% in the first part of the year 3% in later months). Many indicators of consumer spending over the recent holiday shopping season showed improvement, and in some cases surprising strength. While unemployment remains high, recent new jobless claims have been trending in a positive direction. The housing market remains relatively slow, but it does benefit from low interest rates. Monetary policy remains stimulative (although vigilant for signs of inflation). While the economy is clearly in better shape than it was a year ago, questions remain. We continue to watch the effects of the government stimulus program as it enters its second and final year. Will the other parts of the economy gather sufficient momentum to offset the positive effects of government stimulus when they expire late in 2010? Time will tell.

2010 is expected to be a good year. For smaller stocks it is expected to be a very good year, and for small value stocks hold onto your hats! A review of analysts’ earnings estimates for the Russell Indices show the largest of the large companies (e.g. the Russell Top 200) are expected to grow earnings 24% in 2010 over 2009. The average company in the Russell 1000® Index is expected to grow 28%, and the average company in the Russell 2000 Index is expected to grow 191%. In each of these indexes the companies categorized as Value companies are expected to grow faster than their Growth counterparts—interesting times.

Last quarter we reported that we held a cautiously optimistic view. This quarter we are more optimistic; valuations remain historically attractive and interest rates remain low. Significant amounts of cash remain poised to believe. The economy seems to be on track. We may experience volatility throughout the quarter but we remain optimistic.

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Today is Wednesday
March 10, 2010
March 8, 2010

March started off well for stocks despite a continued mix of news on the economic front. The Nasdaq Composite led the charge last week in posting a gain of 3.9%. The S&P 500 climbed 3.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.3%.